BRASÍLIA — Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a dramatic runoff after the son of the country’s jailed former president defied the polls to finish first on Sunday.
Right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) won about 47% of valid votes in Sunday’s first round, ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) at roughly 44.9–45.1%, with more than 99.6% of ballots counted by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), according to CNN and The Times.
Neither reached the 50% threshold needed for an outright win, so a runoff is set for Oct. 25, 2026, per CNN.
The result stunned observers. Final polls had mostly shown Lula narrowly ahead or the two candidates tied; instead, Bolsonaro overperformed, collecting roughly 56 million votes to Lula’s 53.9 million, according to CNN and Le Monde.
Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, declared the result “the end of the PT era” and repeated his proposal to end presidential reelection, per CNN and Le Monde. “I only need one term,” he said. He is in his mid-40s; outlets vary on his exact age.
A hoarse Lula conceded the surprise to supporters: “I confess I was convinced I would win the first round… Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign,” CNN and The Times reported. Lula vowed to court the record roughly 30 million voters — about 21% of the electorate — who abstained, per Le Monde. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1989, every first-round winner has gone on to win the runoff, The Times notes.
Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced last year to 27 years in prison for illegally attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat by Lula, per The Times. CNN frames Flávio as an ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, with the campaign dominated by crime, corruption, and Trump himself. The Times reports conservative gains across both houses of Congress and governorships, which would give Bolsonaro an easier path to govern than Lula would have.
Voting was compulsory for most of the roughly 160 million registered voters, and electronic voting enabled a fast count, according to ANI/APNA.
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