Tropical Storm Erin is tracking westward and is expected to intensify into the Atlantic hurricane season’s first major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — by late this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday,” the NHC said in its Aug. 13 advisory.
As of early Wednesday morning, Erin was about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, moving west at 20 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Thursday night, potentially bringing the storm near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While most forecast models currently project Erin curving away from the U.S. East Coast, with a less than 10% chance of landfall, forecasters caution that long-range predictions can change. Even without a direct hit, the storm is expected to generate dangerous seas, surf, and rip currents along East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week, according to AccuWeather.
The NHC is also monitoring two other systems in the Atlantic: a tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean with a 20% chance of development after crossing into the Gulf of Mexico, and a low-pressure area southeast of Nova Scotia with limited development potential. In the Pacific, former Tropical Storm Henriette has weakened into a post-tropical cyclone.