WASHINGTON — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has placed the United States under a La Niña watch heading into the 2025–2026 winter season, warning that the natural climate phenomenon has better-than-even odds of developing and shaping weather patterns across the country.
What La Niña Means
La Niña occurs when equatorial Pacific Ocean waters cool below average, altering the behavior of the atmosphere above them. Together, these changes affect global circulation patterns, influencing rainfall, temperature, and storm activity in predictable ways.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the odds of La Niña forming between September and November are about 53%, with the probability rising to 58% by late 2025. If confirmed, La Niña would likely persist through much of the winter and weaken by early spring.
Unlike its counterpart, El Niño, which typically warms Pacific waters and shifts the jet stream southward, La Niña tends to push the jet stream north, steering storms toward the northern U.S. while leaving southern states drier.
Regional Forecasts for Winter 2025–2026
Forecasters say La Niña’s impact will vary depending on region:
- Southern States: Drier-than-average conditions are likely across much of the southern tier, including Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. These regions may also see warmer-than-normal temperatures.
- Northern U.S.: Portions of the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes are expected to experience above-normal precipitation, which could mean more snow if temperatures cooperate.
- Northeast: Weak La Niña events often bring increased snowfall potential, but NOAA’s current forecast suggests above-average temperatures, which could prevent significant snow accumulation despite wetter conditions.
- West Coast and Rockies: Warmer-than-average conditions are projected for much of the Southwest and interior West, while a small portion of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to be cooler than average.
Snowfall Prospects Remain Uncertain
While some regions are predicted to see more precipitation than usual, experts caution that more rain or snow is not guaranteed. For snowfall to increase, atmospheric and surface temperatures must remain consistently low. With NOAA projecting warmer-than-average conditions across nearly the entire eastern U.S., forecasters warn that snow lovers in cities like New York, Boston, and Philadelphia may be disappointed.
As NOAA explains, “Precipitation forecasts do not always translate directly into snowfall outlooks, especially during a weak La Niña year where competing climate drivers are also in play.”
The Role of Climate Change
This winter outlook also comes against the backdrop of long-term climate change. NOAA data shows that winter has become the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the U.S., with average winter temperatures rising steadily since the late 19th century.
Last winter, while not a record-breaking season, still ranked warmer than 80% of winters since the late 1800s. Globally, snowfall is declining as fossil fuel emissions contribute to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.
A Weak La Niña This Time
This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively weak, meaning its effects could be less pronounced and less predictable. Other atmospheric patterns, including the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, may also influence outcomes, leading to regional variations that deviate from typical La Niña conditions.
Still, forecasters stress that even a weak La Niña provides a useful “blueprint” for preparing for winter weather. Emergency planners and agricultural sectors, in particular, use these seasonal forecasts to anticipate drought, flooding, or freeze risks.
Looking Ahead
La Niña conditions are projected to develop gradually this fall, with NOAA potentially declaring its official arrival by late autumn or early winter. The event’s duration could shape not only winter forecasts but also early spring weather patterns before it dissipates.
For now, meteorologists advise Americans to prepare for a winter that is warmer than normal in many regions but still capable of producing regional extremes—from drought in the South to snowstorms in the Midwest and Northeast.